Economic Data and Market Highlights
Friday’s non-farm payroll result defined the week for the S&P 500. US equities appeared to look and falling into negative territory for the week at the end of trading on Thursday but the release of the jobs report on Friday AM showing a beat as 254,000 jobs were added, significantly above the 147,000 estimate, propelled the index 90 basis points. Additionally, the port worker strike that could have impacted the entire east coast of the US, ended after just three days. While retailer had prepared by building inventories, the fear was that a longer strike could grind commerce to a halt during the upcoming holidays.
The All-Country World Index fell 60 basis points and the return in US stocks and emerging markets contributed to the weekly return helping to offset the developed markets fall as the MSCI EAFE fell 3.73%.
While some seasonality was apparent in the release such as part-time employment which fell by 95,000, full time employment rose by 414,000. The biggest sectors in employment were private education, up 80,000, likely expected at the beginning of a school year and leisure and hospitality, up 78,000, as consumers continue to spend as wage growth grew 4% year over year.
The US Citi Economic Surprise index, released Thursday, rose to its highest level since April after turning positive.
Chinese markets were closed all except Monday this past week and will be closed on Monday, October 7th due to a national holiday. Chinese equities roared back on Monday, soaring 11.5%, their biggest gain since 2008 reacting to a significant stimulus package announced the previous week. Year-to-date China’s market has returned just over 39%. However, over the past three years, Chinese equities still haven’t recovered from COVID and its fallout. The MSCI China Index is down an annualized 2.38% while the MSCI EM index is up 1.51%. Further the All-Cap World Index is up 8.62% and the S&P 500 11.91%.
The Past Week’s notable US data points
The Upcoming Week’s notable US data points
Data Source: Blackrock, Bloomberg, Charles Schwab, CNBC, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Morningstar, MarketWatch, Standard & Poor’s, and the Wall Street Journal.
Authors:
Jon Chesshire, Managing Director, Head of Research
Michael McNamara, Analyst
Sam Morris, Analyst