Economic Data and Market Highlights
The S&P 500 was slightly positive for the week, up just 29 basis points, but the DJIA sank 1.14%. Consumer discretionary, communication services, and information technology stocks were all down, but the broad positive performance of consumer staples, energy and real estate names pulled the S&P 500 into positive territory. On an equal weighted basis, the benchmark rose 1.87%. The MSCI EAFE and the MSCI emerging Markets benchmarks rose 4.34% and 2.30%, respectively.
Uncertainty increased during the week as President Trump is exploring the process to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve, Jay Powell. He has also publicly called for the Fed to lower rates. Powell’s term does not end until May 2026.
The Trump Administration noted it continues to make progress. The Richmond Fed published the graphic below related to the impact of tariffs. They decompose various scenarios of how tariffs can affect each county within the US, and can be found here.
Jobless claims came in slightly less than expected (215k versus 225K), and the Philadelphia Fed released its manufacturing index data on Thursday, posting a -26.4 reading versus a +2.2% increase. This has been a notoriously volatile number, but it raises concerns given the lack of clarity around tariffs.
Last week we noted the spike in the 10 year, but following the divergence relative to the drop in the USD is a cause for greater concern.
The Past Week’s Notable US data points (with revisions)
The Upcoming Week’s notable US data points
Source: Morningstar
Data Source: Financial News London, Financial Times, Morningstar, MarketWatch, Standard & Poor’s, and the Wall Street Journal.
Authors:
Jon Chesshire, Managing Director
Michael McNamara, Analyst