Economic Data and Market Highlights
At week’s end, the S&P 500 had fallen 2.23% for the week marked by significant volatility in the U.S. securities markets, influenced by escalating trade tensions, economic data releases, and corporate bankruptcy trends. Despite broader market declines, the technology sector showed resilience. Companies like Nvidia and Palantir led a tech rally on March 14, contributing to the best single-day performance of 2025 for major indices after reaching correction territory the previous day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): Experienced a 1.3% drop on March 13, contributing to a weekly loss of approximately 2.98%, marking its worst week since March 2023.
The U.S. administration’s announcement of increased tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports escalated trade tensions, leading to concerns about a potential trade war. Canada’s subsequent retaliatory measures added to market uncertainties. However, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% in February, signaling cooling inflation. This data provided optimism, suggesting potential flexibility for the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate decisions.
A notable rise in corporate bankruptcies, reaching a 14-year high with 694 filings in 2024 (S&P Global Market Intelligence), raised concerns about corporate debt levels and financial stability. Private credit firms are expanding their restructuring teams as corporate bankruptcies and distressed exchanges continue to rise. Hiring spans from major alternative-asset managers to midsize firms managing under $10 billion in assets. Blackstone, Blue Owl, Goldman Sachs, and Golub Capital are among those recruiting professionals with distressed credit expertise.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) signaled potential interest rate hikes, driven by anticipated wage growth and increased consumer spending. One year ago, the Bank of Japan had its first hike in 17 years followed shortly after by two more. The country has the highest overall price growth is currently the strongest in the developed economies. The prospect of tighter monetary policy continuing in Japan led to an appreciation of the yen and affected Japanese equity markets, particularly export-oriented sectors sensitive to currency fluctuations. Equities in the MSCI Japan benchmark fell 2.98% on average.
The Past Week’s Notable US data points (with revisions)
The Upcoming Week’s notable US data points
Source: Morningstar
Data Source: Blackrock, Bloomberg, Charles Schwab, CNBC, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Jim Bianco Research, Morningstar, MarketWatch, Standard & Poor’s, and the Wall Street Journal.
Authors:
Jon Chesshire, Managing Director
Michael McNamara, Analyst