Economic Data and Market Highlights
The S&P 500 rose 87 basis points for the week as economic releases indicated that jobless claims were in line with expectations. The consumer is still spending as retail sales exceeded expectations but a recent Fed survey, visible below, indicates that delinquencies are expected to rise.
Pending home sales also jumped. The 2.5% month-over- month increase was the largest since January 2023. However, housing starts sank -2.9% versus and estimate of -0.7%.
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing data significantly exceeded estimates 10.3 vs 4.2. Industrial production, however, trended into negative territory in September. Mixed economic data left questions about the degree of the next Fed rate cut.
The significant stimulus released by China to support its housing markets has lost the appeal of traders as their markets have continued to decline, losing another 2.79% this past week. Third quarter data came in at 4.6% year over year but was weaker than expected and the stimulus may be a result of more concern than what China may have initially indicated. Emerging markets were off 37 basis points for the week. Developed markets also fell 37 basis points for the week, off 2.36% on a month-to-date basis. Japan was largely responsible for the EAFE’s decline as Japanese equities fell 99 basis points. Japanese inflation rose more than expected at 2.5%
The Past Week’s notable US data points
The Upcoming Week’s notable US data points
Data Source: Blackrock, Bloomberg, Charles Schwab, CNBC, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Morningstar, MarketWatch, Standard & Poor’s, and the Wall Street Journal.
Authors:
Jon Chesshire, Managing Director, Head of Research
Michael McNamara, Analyst
Sam Morris, Analyst